Introspection...

Source: http://onlinedarshan.com/doha/doha6.htm

Right Path...

Consider this...

You are all set to go for a long journey..and all the (so called) experts tell(ask/advise/instruct) you to take path-A..but you decide to take path-B ..
(may be...Seagull in you sparked...and you ended up following path-B).

You’re probably stupid.

But if you get lucky, and discover (for instance) a pot of gold along the *stupid* path..people will call you a leader.
You’ll still be stupid...but fewer people will feel the need to point that out...

When you’re in charge..there can not be much of rewards in following the expert's path. The best you'll achieve is the label “competent”.
The faintest of praise for you could be...“XYZ is competent”.
To me it sounds like...barely better than being incompetent.

Fortunately (or unfortunately, as the case may be)..life is too complex to know for sure if taking path-A (or path-B) would work out best. Even the experts often get it wrong.

Having said that, this guarantees that a fair number of stupid people would be judged great leaders. They will take the wrong path and things will turn out right for them...

oh..btw, how are we defining stupidity (and who is doing this for us) anyways?
(thinking..)

Imagination...

I have a feedback that every other day I come up with a hypothesis that sounds correct(to me) and that ends up having an added advantage of being totally impossible to verify(for others).

That’s almost as good as knowledge for me…(yet another hypothesis it is..)

New hypothesis I have is.. a person’s need for social interaction is inversely related(or proportional) to the quality of his imagination...(special emphasis on the word need)..

What I mean to say is…if you happen to have an excellent imagination…you might enjoy people, but..at the same time.. you’ll be equally happy being alone with your thoughts for long stretches..

In other words…(and to keep it blunt) *you fascinate yourself*.

All this being said with the assumption that…people have widely different powers(or levels) of imagination.

To me, this seems to be a possibility. People are all over the world…with every possible mental ability…

Whatever is happening inside the mind of a person with the worst possible imagination on earth is clearly very different from what’s happening in the mind of the most creative…Just in case…if you happen to have no imagination (of whatsoever kind)..you’ll need to get all of your stimulations from the environment..mostly from other people, or at least TV shows about other people. You turn out to be one of those talkative ..babbling types.

You wouldn’t want to be left alone with your “thoughts” for more than two minutes…you can’t meditate…etc etc..because your empty-thoughtness would scare you to death…

As a workaround…you have to keep your mind engaged 100% of the times…and not giving it a chance to “think”.

On the other end of the spectrum…if your imagination is extraordinary/creative… interaction with other people will just get in the way of incredible/enjoyable experiences you could otherwise be having entirely in your head…

btw…where do you lie on this imagination-spectrum..?

(I had this post since long.. but couldn't get time to post it..things kept me too busy)
Edited: 18-May-2007.

The Perception of Being Fair..

The thought occurred to me at the traffic lights..two kids asking for money appeared from no where...both contending to get something from me. I wanted to be fair with them trying to give them both something in equality.

I think being fair is a funny illusion. Yes, it's one of the most useful illusions..but nonetheless..it’s an illusion. [usefulness of illusions is not what I'm trying to make out here..lets leave that for now..]

Just imagine, trying to divide 10 similar toys between two kids. You'll probably end up giving 5 toys to each kid and will suffer from this illusion of being fair. The kids would also probably agree with the arrangement(free will theory you know) and the illusion of fairness would work just fine.

Now the question is...is five toys per each child actually fair?

Dont we wish/need to know how many toys each kid already owns? What if one kid already has hundreds of them and the other has none?
If you have studied economics, u'll conclude that marginal utility of an extra toy is way much higher for the toy-poor kid.

Shouldn't their different level of enthusiasm for toys also come into the picture?
Remember, you're trying to be fair with their happiness ...and not their toys.

Just in case...what if one of the kids loves toys 'n' times higher than the other...How would you be fair in that case?
I'll, probably end up giving most of the toys to the kid who doesn’t enjoy them as much. The theory being...he'll need more toys to obtain the same level of happiness as the toy lover gets with one...:)
[..Of course this solution would cause one of the kids to melt-down..coz it wouldn’t have the illusion of fairness]

Even further...this simplest example of fairness falls apart when you put it under scrutiny.
Luckily, most of the people are morons...so they'll imagine fairness where none exists..otherwise nothing would ever get done :)

"The Happyness Formula" book..

Every time I see a self-improvement book in the shelves...I fantasize about myself writing a book someday...

And...how about if we could come up with a formal and conclusive *Happiness Formula"..

Basically the idea would be to derive down a simple and precise formula which could *troubleshoot life* and (probably)...improve your happiness.
(now..this could go on back cover..and by using troubleshoot-your-life phrases..I would have already incepted in the readers mind: your life is pathetic and you need to read this book...etc etc..)

On page one I would like to put this top formula:

(F-1)
Happiness = Health + Money (wealth) + Social life (community) + Meaning (for some of you this would mean spirituality..but this is what not I mean).

Rest of the book would contain some nested formulas(with random permutations and combinations of above components).. that would further explain each component of happiness...
For instance...

(F-2)
Health = Sleep + Diet + Exercise

..down another level..

(F-3)
Sleep = Schedule + Technique

..until it starts getting practical...

(F-4)
Sleep Technique = Consistent bedtime and waking time + no reading or TV in bed + no booze or caffeine…

...and so on.

Going further, just to make *The Happiness Formula* extra useful...the highest priority would appear first (leftmost) in the formula.

For example, in the top Happiness Formula (F-1), health is a higher priority than money, which is a higher priority than social life...etc...

I realize you might not agree with my ranking of priorities..and point out all the exceptions...
For example..you might argue..if you have no money..you might not afford to be healthy. But the formula only shows priorities, not absolutes.

Obviously you always need money flowing in...but take it this way...the priority shows that you shouldn’t take a job with high pay that will significantly affect your health. It makes more sense to get healthy and then leverage your health to get the best job.
And, Healthy looking people land better jobs and are more highly paid. Their brains work better too...and they have more energy...

I have ranked money higher than social life (and meaning)..because once you have money..those other things are easier to get. For instance...you cannot have much of a social life...if you can’t afford to do anything. And..obviously..you can’t make money if your health is a mess...

I would further..go on with some rambling about more of further derived confused fundas ...like explaining how could something like “money” can be broken down into a formula so easily that virtually anyone can just follow it to get more...
(I believe: small, simple and precise is always appreciated)

I think it can be done...

(F-5)
Money = Income + Investments

We could further go ahead with a small and precise Investment plan..endorsed by some economists/financial planners..

(F-6)
Investments = Do these steps in the order shown:
1. Make a will
2. Pay off your credit cards and all other short term loans.
3. Get life insurance if you have dependents.
4. Buy a house if you want to live in a house.
5. Put six months worth of expenses in a money-market.
6. Take whatever money is left over and invest 70% in a stock index fund and 30% in a bond fund and never touch it until retirement.
7. If any of the above confuses you..or you have something special going on (nearing retirement, further studies, tax issues), hire a fee-based financial planner, not the usual insurance-cum-investment agents(they'll mess up your finances).

What stops me from converting this *The Happiness Formula* into a book is...it would hardly be about (say) 20 pages long. Its power is in its brevity, and brevity is not rewarded in our economy.(you know what I mean).
If the best book in the world was only 20 pages long, no one would buy it. They would stand on the shelves and read it cover to cover... :(

Maybe a wiki project would do just fine...
Related: Aim of Life

Who's next...?

This one is on a serious note. CNBC had an excellent talk this Sunday...and here's the pollution:

China's Shanghai stock market had a 9% plunge..and led to a global sell-off on 27th Feb, 2007.
And the question was..who' next?...

I strongly believe(now), it's India next..to me, the country(mostly) looks like it's on the road to a *genuine* economic and political crisis...
(me going pessimist?? NO!...hold on your arguments for a while please...)

Reasons being:

• we're as big as China. It's growing just about as fast...
• Our economy is in more danger of overheating...
• And...we now are more dependent on speculative hot money...
• We have already suffered a ~30% drop in May-June, 2006, so similar volatility cannot be ruled out.

To mention the obvious..any short-term blip in a major developing market such as ours *could* set off big ripples across the globe...

In the long term, however, I think India still remains the most attractive of all global stock markets:

• Our population is younger than China..
• Our education system is expanding and improving..
• Our companies are now more focused on creating wealth for shareholders...ha!

All this makes me more inquisitive...

• Do the long-term rewards outweigh the short-term risks?
• Should I (as investor)..buy in now...determined to weather any storm that may come?
• -> or instead, should I simply wait for the rain to fall and the clouds to clear?...and how long?

Myself..not being a finance expert..but I'll have my take :)

Short-term risks:

• Asset prices are high...so high that they show all the signs of a classic asset bubble. Property values have soared...value of prime office space in metros are up by double digits (>50%) the last year...these high asset prices depend on a flood of easily withdrawn overseas hot money...and India being very dependent on global cash flows...makes it all the more vulnerable
• Bank lending is out of control...RBI trying hard to control it but in vain till now.
• Inflation is out of control. Nationally, inflation recently hit a two-year high of 6.7% and is running even higher specially in rural areas where two-thirds of India resides.

• RBI recently raised its benchmark interest rate to 7.5% at the end of January...without noticeably slowing neither inflation..nor..the lending boom.
• FM has *intelligently* undercut the central bank's efforts...urging banks not to pass on interest rate increase to lenders...kudos!!

Short-term prognosis:

• A big domestic credit crunch ahead...caused when lenders stop lending...and..borrowers can't get the cash they need to run their businesses.
• Causing India to fall far short of all current forecasts of annual growth...foreign investors start withdrawing money from BSE...resulting in yet another *major* correction...
• Consider Congress Party government losing power. After stumbling with politically motivated attempts to reduce food and fuel prices in rural areas...the new government bites the bullet...and raises interest rates, and cuts down bank lending enough to slow inflation...and eventually the economy slows down. On the other hand, this might lead to return of overseas cash back in also.

It won't play out exactly like that, of course :)
It's difficult to predict...how deep any credit crunch might be or how much RBI might have to slow down the economy to reduce inflation to its..so called..5-5.5% comfort zone...

Subduing inflation in India would require big increases in supply...
Indian companies..now operating at full capacity...and with improvements in infrastructure that reduce the costs of moving food and fuel...this seems achieveable.

But, I don't know...
---->how long the Congress government will be able to *cling* to power...
---->how other global markets would react to a big drop in Indian stocks...
---->when all of this *would* happen... :)

The core of the problem (per the talks..):
"The imbalance between urban-areas-quickly-growing-wealthy (in Indian terms..) and rural-areas-left-behind in the boom."

All this mess took a while to create...and it will take a while to correct. Crises could be seen within that 18-24 month window...

Long-term rewards:

• There's no going back to the highly-regulated-economy of the past...open-up is the theme.. Even the Congress Party..(clearly not a friend of open economy)..wasn't able to resist the momentum. And with Indian companies increasingly making big bucks from the global economy, there's no reason to put the genie back in the bottle. That means future growth should be pretty decent..(7-10% ?).
• We have enough numbers (population) to make a decent consumer economy/market. So, even if we are still poorer than China, growth in consumption should be able to take off the overall economy...
• Government realizes the need to catch up...education is getting the attention..and money too. Recent budget has shown the same.
• Thanks to the recent population explosion..half of our population in below 25 years of age...This means that we have the required time to fix our problems before the needs of a huge old aged (60 and older) begin to dip into national savings.....younger economy grow faster..
• Our companies have a culture of creating value for shareholders. It's subjective..but it's important. Many companies here...and some of the biggest...have family driven culture. I think that culture takes much better care of shareholders!..than that of corporate China..where companies are often run to enrich local officials, managers and elites.
• Companies traditionally have shown above-average profitability...inspite of being short of cash flows...so coping up with cash shouldn't be much of a problem.

All in all...India should remain the most attractive stock market in the world in the long term...

Stats: The average return on equity for Indian companies(BSE): 21%.
Average return on equity for the U.S ($INX): 18.7%
-> Middle class population(2005): 200-300 million (approx.)
-> India's Per capita GDP(2005): $3,460
-> China's per capita(2005): $6,660 (We are still poorer than China...)
----> Only 10% of Indians have life insurance.
----> Only 2% have credit cards.
----> Only 15% Indians have refrigerators.

State of affairs...

"A really efficient totalitarian state would be one in which the all-powerful executive of political bosses and their army of managers control a population of slaves who do not have to be coerced, because they love their servitude. To make them love it is the task assigned,in present-day totalitarian states, to ministries of propaganda,newspaper editors and schoolteachers."

-- Aldous Huxley (1894-1963)
Author Source: Forward to 'Brave New World', 1932